Investing can be simple in concept but is not easy to do well
It is a simple statement that the decision to invest in the first place provides an opportunity to protect hard earned savings from inflation, and perhaps grow further. It is not easy, however, to have the foresight, as well as the discipline, to deny oneself spending today for the opportunity of a better tomorrow.
It is also not easy to work out how much one might want, need and be able to invest in stock markets to help fund future spending goals. Getting this right is key and where good financial advisers can add value.
It is simple that stock markets act as a core driver of returns in an investor’s portfolio and that bonds act as protection from economic turmoil and help to smooth returns.
It is, however, not easy to know what evidence to look for in order to gain an understanding about what types of long-term investments typically improve a portfolio’s structure. This comes with the need to build an understanding of the risks one wants to be exposed to through time.
It is also not easy to decide which bonds are deemed to be defensive ‘enough’ to be considered an insurance policy against the uncertainty inherent in stock markets.
Finally, it is a simple concept that a low-cost fund structured to capture the target strategy gives investors a better chance of achieving their investing goals relative to a high-cost one.
It is, however, not easy to regularly screen for which funds might be best positioned to capture the returns of each part of the market, or to understand the trade-off between the management costs of a fund and the opportunity cost (i.e. what could have been) of omitting an investment. It is harder still to implement a thorough and regular investment oversight process, which is required to maintain confidence in the approach.
We also need to consider that one of the great challenges that all investors face is that there is no easy or quick way to investment success. Aesop’s fable of the tortoise and the hare is a useful metaphor. You have to use the time on your side – which could be over multiple decades – to capture the returns of the markets effectively, but often slowly.
In the short-term, market returns can be disappointing. The longer you can hold for, the more likely the returns you receive will be at worst survivable, and hopefully far more palatable. It is time that allows small returns to compound into large differences in outcome for the patient investor. The reality is that markets go up and down with regular monotony.
The stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient (Warren Buffett)
If you want to be a good investor, you have to be patient. On your investing journey, you will spend a lot of time going backwards, recovering from the set back and then surging forwards again, often in short, sharp bursts of upward market movement.
You just have to stick with it. Remember that you have to be in the markets to capture their returns. Impatient investors tend to lose faith in their investments too quickly, often with painful consequences.
There are no certainties in investing, but investors can give themselves the best chance of achieving their expectations by allowing the passage of time to let short-term uncertainty be overwhelmed by long-term expected outcomes.
Investing using a well thought-out, evidence-based and systematic investment process helps to reduce the emotional pressures involved and deliver investors with the highest probability of a successful investment outcome. It does not guarantee that the outcome will always be favourable; it cannot, given the uncertainty of the markets. What it does do is to help us make strong, rational decisions and to avoid the silly mistakes that prove to be so costly, so often.
In particular, chasing markets and managers in search of market-beating returns and being sucked into the latest investment fad by recent trends, plausible marketing stories and press coverage. Bad process, or a lack of process, has an upside outcome that is down to luck rather than judgement.
We can reflect on these wise words written by Charles D. Ellis in his excellent book ‘Winning the Loser’s Game’ (Ellis, 2002):
‘The hardest work in investing is not intellectual, it’s emotional. Being rational in an emotional environment is not easy. The hardest work is not figuring out the optimal investment policy; it’s sustaining a long-term focus at market highs or market lows and staying committed to a sound investment policy. Holding on to sound investment policy at market highs and market lows in notoriously hard and important work, particularly when Mr. Market always tries to trick you into making changes.’
Simple but not easy. A systematic process and a guiding hand from a specialist adviser are the keys to success.